Thursday, May 31, 2007

Duffy's Big Board

Name College Position Stock
1. Greg Oden Ohio State C Locked into #1
2. Kevin Durant Texas G/ F Locked into #2
3. Al Horford Florida PF As high as possible
4. Brandan Wright North Carolina F Could go as high as #3
5. Julian Wright Kansas F Rising quickly
6. Corey Brewer Florida G/F Steady
7. Mike Conley Jr. Ohio State PG Also could go #3
8. Yi Jianlian China PF Workouts will tell alot
9. Jeff Green Georgetown SF Steady
10. Joakim Noah Florida PF Rising
11. Thaddeus Young Georgia Tech SG Rising very, very fast
12. Al Thornton Florida State F Steady
13. Spencer Hawes Washington C Rising
14. Jarvaris Crittenton Georgia Tech PG Rising
15. Acie Law IV Texas A+M PG Falling
16. Nick Young USC SG Steady
17. Gabe Pruitt USC PG Rising into Top 20
18. Derrick Byers Vanderbilt SG Steady
20.. Josh McRoberts Duke PF Potential to rise in workouts
21. Taurean Green Florida PG Rising
22. Tiago Splitter Brazil PF Steady
24. Jamareo Davidson Alabama PF Rising
25. Jason Smith Colorado State PF Falling
26. Dequan Cook Ohio State SG Steady
27. Reyshawn Terry North Carolina SF Rising
28. Aaron Afflalo UCLA SG Falling
29. Marco Belinelli Italy SG Steady
30. Wilson Chandler DePaul SF Rising

Close Calls:
Rodney Stuckey G Eastern Washington
Morris Almond SG Rice
Herbert Hill PF Providence
Demetrius Nichols G/F Syracuse
Sean Willams F/C Boston College
Aaron Gray C Pittsburgh
Nick Fazekas PF Nevada
Alando Tucker SF Wisconsin
Marcus Williams SF Arizona
Ante Tomic C Croatia
Glen Davis PF LSU

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

Where Does Kobe Go?

During an interview with Stephen A. Smith this morning, Kobe Bryant announced that he is officially demanding a trade and could not ever see himself playing for the Lakers again. While its hard to envision Kobe wearing another uniform, it seems that hes not kidding around about this. The Lakers are so far over the cap, have mediocre draft picks, and virtually no one of value on their team to trade. So in essence, Kobe is stuck as being the 7 seed in the West for pretty much the rest of his career. The Lakers have been unable to get help around Bryant, so now it is time to move him for some young players and start this dynasty from scratch. So now the big question becomes- Where does Bryant go? Heres some possibilities:

Philadelphia
Kobe could be one of those players that wants to return to his hometown in his later years (a la Chris Webber). Because Bryant is the best player in the NBA, there probalby won't be a trade that is "fair," but the Sixers have enough ammunition to make a trade that is at least respectable for LA. Philly has three-first round draft picks (12th, 21st, and 30th), a solid PG in Andre Miller, and an emerging SF in Andre Iguodala. The Sixers would be wise to hold onto Iguodala, however, as he could serve as Kobe's "Scottie Pippen." If LeBron is good enough to take the Cavs this far, Kobe could easily bring the Sixers back to the NBA Finals.
Possible Trade: LA sends Bryant and Vladamir Radmanovic to Philly for the 12th pick, 21st pick, Andre Miller and Rodney Carney.
Note: If Kobe actually ended up in Philadelphia, it would be great for the league. Except for the fact that it's most popular analyst, Stephen A. Smith, would immediately go into cardiac arrest upon hearing the news.

Seattle
I'm sure a rumor will fly up that Kobe is going to Portland for the #1 pick, but that won't happen. He hasn't proved he can win with the Lakers supporting cast, so there is no reason to believe he will win with the Blazers. Portland would be downright stupid to trade Greg Oden for anything. There is a possibility that Kobe could go to Seattle for the #2 pick, which ultimately would turn into Kevin Durant. The Lakers could build their future around Durant and hope to put pieces around him in the coming seasons, while the Sonics would have a deadly perimeter combination of Kobe and Ray Allen. Those two players alone would be enough to carry the Sonics far into the Western Conference Playoffs, and if Seattle pulled off a sign and trade with Rashard Lewis to get a big man or point guard, they could become an instant title contender.
Possible Trade: LA trades Bryant to Seattle for the draft rights to Kevin Durant and Danny Fortson (so the money evens out).

Dallas
After being humiliated by the Warriors in the first round, Mark Cuban is desperate and will do something crazy this offseason. Initially, it appeared they would make a run at Jason Kidd, but now that Bryant is on the market, they cannot pass up the opportunity to add him to the roster. Dirk is probably the only player on the team that they wouldn't give up.
Possible Trade: LA trades Bryant to Dallas for Josh Howard, Devin Harris, and Maurice Ager.

Chicago
The Bulls have a ton of young players at every position and could give the Lakers the best deal if they deem themselves to be interested. Bryant would have a tall task wearing #24 in a Chicago uniform, but depending on the supporting cast left behind, he will have a shot to win a few more titles with the Bulls.
Possible Trade: LA trades Bryant and Kwame Brown to Chicago for Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, and a future first round pick . (I wouldn't be suprised if the Bulls refused to trade Thomas and tried to throw in someone like Andres Nocioni instead.)

Boston
This would certainly revitalize the fading Celtics franchise. Despite being one of the league's worst teams, they have a number of talented young players that LA would be interested in. If a trade went down between these two storied franchises, it could do wonders for the league.
Possible Trade: LA trades Bryant to Boston for Al Jefferson, Gerald Green, and Rajon Rondo. (The Celts would then use the #5 pick on a big man such as Al Horford or Brandan Wright to replace Jefferson. Or, they could trade the #5 pick along with Jefferson and hold onto Gerald Green and/or Rajon Rondo.)

Atlanta
Like Boston, Atlanta has a sleuth of young players who could be dealth for Bryant. Joe Johnson is perhaps the leagues quietest 25 ppg scorer, and he would be an ideal player for the Lakers to recieve in return.
Possible Trade: LA trades Bryant and the #19 pick to Atlanta for Joe Johnson and the #3 pick, and #11 pick.

Miami
The Heat and Lakers should just say "you know what...that trade three years ago was dumb, lets just do it over."
Possible Trade: LA sends Bryant and Lamar Odom to Miami for Dwayne Wade. (Finally, Shaq and Kobe are re-united.)

Again, when a star player requests a trade, it is hardly fair. Remember Randy Moss to Oakland for Napolean Harris and Troy Williamson? Hopefully the Kobe trade won't be that bad, but I wouldn't expect a star player in return. The most likely scenario includes two or three young talents, as mentioned in the possible trades above. A trade that would move someone like Carmelo Anthony, Tracy McGrady, or Dirk very rarely happens. So...if a deal actually goes down, expect it to be highly in favor of the team getting Kobe, and expect the Lakers to be at the top of the lottery next year with a chance to draft a new franchise player in Derrick Rose or OJ Mayo.

Which College Produces the Best Pros?

With the Draft about a month away, it’s almost crunch time for NBA executives. Doing the proper research and evaluating can make or break a team’s draft. And one draft can make or break a team’s future. Because of the draft’s importance, teams will consider many factors before choosing a player on June 30th, one of which being the college that the player attended. Some programs are notorious for churning out NBA talent, while some big-name college teams, despite great success at the NCAA level, do not produce many good pros. Here is a look at the top NBA-talent producing colleges over the past ten drafts, and then a few more basketball factories not included in the list.

1. UConn- Ray Allen, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon, Caron Butler, Richard Hamilton, Rudy Gay, Charlie Villanueva, Marcus Williams, Josh Boone, Hilton Armstrong and Jake Voshkul all play in the league right now. Out of that group, there are four All-Stars and at least three more with potential to be. Not to mention Travis Knight, Khalid El-Amin, and Doron Sheffer had stints in the NBA and recent graduates Denham Brown and Rashad Anderson could end up on a roster sometime soon.
This Year: Apparently, Jim Calhoun prepares his players for the next level, which would have been good news for UConn C Hasheem Thabeet had he made himself eligible for this year’s draft. Unfortunately, he didn’t, but scouts are hot on the trail of UConn’s lone senior, walk-on SG Marty Gagne, who could go mid-first round after some GM’s read this article.

2. Duke- The Blue Devils are starting to debunk the myth that their university produces flops in the NBA. Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, Corey Maggette and Luol Deng have proved to be stars, while Shane Battier and Mike Dunleavy are starters and Chris Duhon and Dahntay Jones have stuck as role players. The careers of JJ Redick , Sheldon Williams, and Daniel Ewing are too young to tell, and somehow Shavlik Randolph made the 76ers.
This Year: Josh McRoberts may not be ready, but the Duke tradition will help propel him to the Top 20.

3. Arizona- Lute Olsen is as good as any coach at grooming his players for the NBA. In the last ten years, Zona has produced stars such as Gilbert Arenas, Mike Bibby, Jason Terry, Richard Jefferson, and Andre Iguodala. Luke Walton, Channing Frye, Salim Stoudamire, and Hassan Adams all show potential (OK, none of them show potential but they are young and at least on a roster). Michael Dickerson was a solid scorer with the Grizzlies until severe hamstring and groin injuries-which Miles Simon swears he knows nothing about- forced him to retire.
This Year: Marcus Williams is not ready for the NBA. He could use some more time in Tucson to work on his jumpshot, and because of that, projects as a late-first, early second round pick.

4. Wake Forest- The Demon Deacons don’t show the depth of the other two teams, but with two All-Stars in Chris Paul and Josh Howard, the best PF of all-time in Tim Duncan, and Lithuania’s own Darius Songaila, it’s hard to keep Wake out of the Top 5.
This Year: Kyle Visser is a big body that should come off the board early in the second round and give an NBA team a solid back-up at center.


5. North Carolina- Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison are the real deal, but other than that UNC does not have a great deal of star power in the NBA. Marvin Williams, Sean May, and Ray Felton have shown potential, while Rashad McCants has struggled in his first two seasons. The Heels also boast a few role players in Jeff McInnis, Brendan Haywood, and David Noel. Had this list covered the last 11 drafts, UNC would be a lot higher because Rasheed Wallace and Jerry Stackhouse both were drafted in 1995.
This Year: Brandan Wright is not very polished, but he will almost certainly go in the Top 5 or 6, so his decision to leave was a no-brainer. One player not getting a lot of attention is UNC senior SF Reyshawn Terry, who could slide into the end of the first-round because he can defend and has an NBA-ready body. He could be a real sleeper in this year’s draft.

6. Kansas- Paul Pierce is the only true star that Kansas has produced in the past decade. Kirk Hinrich and Drew Gooden are above-average players. Scot Pollard was one of the better centers in the league at one point, while young big men Wayne Simien and Nick Collison will probably be nothing more than career back-ups. Jacque Vaughn continues to pay his salary to David Stern under the table to allow his sad career to continue.
This Year: Julian Wright is a versatile combo forward that figures to add to Kansas’ already stellar collection of NBA Players.

7. Georgia Tech- Stephon Marbury and Chris Bosh are the best Yellow Jackets, followed by Matt Harpring and Jarrett Jack. Dion Glover enjoyed a brief stint in the league, as did Jason Collier, the former Atlanta Hawks center who passed away from a heart attack last offseason.
This Year: Two freshmen, Thaddeus Young and Jarvaris Crittenton, are quickly rising up draft boards, and though each could have used another year of school, they both have the potential to shoot Georgia Tech into the Top 3 of this list.

8. Kentucky- The Late 90’s produced great depth in Antione Walker, Tony Delk, Walter McCarty, Derek Anderson, Ron Mercer, Nazr Mohammed, and Scott Padgett. Since then, Tayshaun Prince has been the lone standout, while Rajon Rondo, Chuck Hayes, Randolph Morris, and Keith Bogans all are still working their way into their respective rotations. However, the Wildcats are lucky to boast the worst All-Star in the history of sports, C Jamaal Magloire.
This Year: Randolph Morris entered the NBA a few months ago in the sketchiest way possible, but this year the Wildcats probably won’t have anyone drafted.


9. Michigan State- Jason Richardson and Zach Randolph didn’t spend much time in a State uniform, but they are the best Spartans in the NBA. Morris Peterson has stuck as a long-range shooter, and the rookie tandem Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager flashed a lot of potential in limited playing time.
This Year: State had no seniors on last year’s team, and no one who entered the draft early. Though they are a gritty team, the Spartans don’t have the NBA-talent that they used to in past years.

10. Syracuse- Carmelo Anthony is the only thing keeping the Orange on this list. Hakim Warrick, Etan Thomas, and Jason Hart all play, and John Wallace, well, at least he got drafted.
This Year: Sharp-shooting swingman Demetrius Nichols is likely go somewhere between early and mid second round. Big men Daryl Watkins and Terence Roberts are physically imposing, but lack the skills to contribute on an NBA team.

Ten More Basketball Factories (Not Just Colleges):

The Good: Benneton Treviso (Italy)
This Italian club team was the starting place for Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Andrea Barngani, Jose Garbajosa, and Bostan Nachbar. Obviously, the latter three are now in the NBA, while Tskitishvilli is pleading with Benneton Treviso to let him back on the team.
This Year: No one in the draft. Former Gonzaga and Portland Trail Blazer SG Richie Frahm is a notable member of this years Treviso squad.

The Bad: UCLA
Aside from Baron Davis, the alumni in the NBA representing the most storied college program ever goes something like this: Jelani McCoy, JR Henderson, Jerome Moiso, Earl Watson, Matt Barnes, Jason Kapono, Trevor Ariza, Jordan Farmar, Dan Gadzuric, Cedric Bozeman, and Dijon Thompson.
This Year: Aaron Afflalo, a 1st team All-American last season, is looking like a late first to early second round pick.

The Ugly: Stanford
We stay in the Pac-10 for this group of ballers, which is comprised of Casey Jacobsen, Curtis Borchardt, Brevin Knight, Josh Childress, Jason Collins, Jarron Collins, and Tim Young. No wonder the Stanford mascot drinks during the home games.
This Year: The Cardinal were young last year and it showed in a blowout first round loss at the hands of Louisville. None of their seniors (Carlton Weatherby, Fred Washington, and Chris Bobel) have a chance to be drafted.

The Random: Minnesota
The Golden Gophers have never been mistaken for a basketball powerhouse, but they have had six first-round draft picks since 1996: Joel Pryzbilla, Rick Rickert, Kris Humphries, Sam Jacobsen, Bobby Jackson, John Thomas, and Quincy Lewis. With Tubby Smith in town now, expect the trend of the Gophers recruiting talented high school players and screwing up their careers to the point that they are out of the NBA within three years to continue at an all-time high.
This Year: No one is expected to add to their list of successful NBA Stars anytime soon.

The Unlucky: Memphis
If one team has been hurt by the early entry rules, it’s Memphis. John Callipari has seen Amare Stoudamire, Kendrick Perkins, and Qyntel Woods forgo their commitments and enter the NBA Draft before stepping foot on campus, while Dajuan Wager, Darius Washington, Shawne Williams didn’t exactly get cozy in their dorms before deciding to go pro.
This Year: Three-point specialist Jeremy Hunt may crack the second round, but Memphis will make a real contribution to the NBA next year, when incoming freshman Derrick Rose is expected to be the top overall pick. Chris Douglas-Roberts, Robert Dozier, and Joey Dorsey are three other Tigers that could have an NBA career in the near future.

The French: Pau Orthez (France)
Pau Orthez, a French club team, has seen Boris Diaw, Johan Petro, and Mickeal Pietrus move onto the NBA in recent years.
This Year: No one from Pau Orthez is in the draft this year, but former college stars, Utah’s Britton Johnson and Arizona’s Michael Wright, are notable members of the current team.

The Powerhouse: Oak Hill Academy (Va.)
Oak Hill must have some wild alumni games. Carmelo Anthony, Steve Blake, DaSanga Diop, Josh Smith, Ron Mercer, Jerry Stackhouse, Jeff McInnis, Stephen Jackson, Rajon Rondo, Marcus Williams, William Avery all are Oak Hill grads, while current UNC PG Ty Lawson also earned his high school diploma while playing for Coach Steve Smith and the Warriors. Kevin Durant attended the school but graduated from Montrose Christian HS in Maryland.
This Year: PG Brandon Jennings, who has given a verbal commitment to Arizona, is ranked as one of the Top prospects of 2008. Expect him to add to the long list of successful point guards to come out of Oak Hill.



The High Schools (besides Oak Hill): Willowridge HS (Sugarland, TX)
Current NBA guards TJ Ford and Daniel Ewing were high school teammates at Willowridge. Former Oklahoma State F Ivan McFarlin also was a graduate of Willowridge, a school that has football tradition as well. Thurman Thomas and current Atlanta Falcon CB Jason Webster were both Willowridge HS grads.

Compton Dominguez HS (Compton, CA)
In 1998, Compton Dominguez featured a team anchored by senior McDonald’s All-American Tayshaun Prince and a 6-11 freshman center named Tyson Chandler.

Simon Gratz (Philadelphia, PA)
Similar to Compton Dominguez, the 1989-1990 Simon Gratz Bulldogs featured a tandem of senior guard Aaron McKie and freshman forward Rasheed Wallace. Current New York Knicks guard Mardy Collins also is a graduate of Simon Gratz.

Sunday, May 27, 2007

The Best and Worst of The Past Ten NBA Drafts

Before we delve into this year’s NBA Draft, we should reflect on past drafts that have brought us to this point. Maybe taking a look at how teams have drafted in the past ten years will help explain the mysteries of the NBA, like why the Spurs continue to get better despite picking 30th every year and signing free agents like Francisco Elson.
The NBA Draft is truly an imperfect science. To build their dynasty, the Spurs had to not only make smart picks, but they had to get lucky as well. As smart as it was to pick Manu Ginobili (57th overall in 1999) and Tony Parker (28th overall in 2001), the Spurs were equally lucky to land the top pick in 1997 and draft some guy named Tim Duncan. And to put together a team as disgraceful as the Grizzlies, Memphis (well actually the mess started in Vancouver) was not only stupid, but very unlucky in their past drafts. The Grizzlies sandwiched a wise pick of Shareef Abdur-Rahim (3rd overall in 1996) with two bonehead selections of Bryant “Big Country” Reeves (5th in 1995) and Antonio Daniels (4th in 1997). Granted, Reeves was almost the default selection in ’95, considering Kurt Thomas, Michael Finley, and Damon Stoudamire were the only other legit pros taken after him. The fact that they missed out on Kevin Garnett, Rasheed Wallace and Jerry Stackhouse, who were all drafted in the Top 5 that year, is just bad luck. On the other hand, the fact that they drafted Daniels over Tracy McGrady had nothing to do with luck.

The Grizz continued to employ their foundation draft strategy- taking the biggest reach available- into the new decade, when they chose Stromile Swift 2nd overall in 2000. This pick could also be an example of bad luck, however, because the 2000 draft, in which Memphis landed the highest pick in team history also turned out to be the weakest draft in history (its best players are Michael Redd, Mike Miller, and Jamal Crawford). One year earlier, the Grizzlies had an ultimate stroke of bad luck, when they chose Steve Francis 2nd overall and Francis refused to play in Vancouver and demanded a trade to Houston.
Now that I’ve gone over the complete history of the Vancouver/Memphis franchise, a good place to start would be the worst picks ever. So here they are.

The Ten Worst Picks of the Last Ten Years
10. Mike Dunleavy 3rd overall by Golden State in 2002
The Warriors were looking for a SF, and they should have looked no further than Caron Butler.

9. Everyone except Minnesota in the 2000 Draft
The T’Wolves were the only team to get the 2000 Draft right…they forfeited their pick as every other team should have done.

8. Rodney White 9th overall by Detroit in 2001
25 ppg scorer Joe Johnson was taken with the very next pick. In his one season with Detroit, White scored a total of 56 points.

7. Seattle SuperSonics Drafts
Seattle’s First Round Picks Since 1996:
Bobby Jackson, Vladamir Stepania, Traded draft rights of Corey Maggette to Orlando for Horace Grant, Desmond Mason, Vladamir Radmanovic, Nick Collison, Robert Swift, Johan Petro, Mohamed Sene.
Note to Sonics: Stop drafting foreign players and stop trading the few athletic black players that you pick.

6. Nicoloz Tskitishvilli 5th overall by Denver in 2002
Was a member of five teams, averaging 3 points per game before David Stern sent him back to the Soviet Union.

5. (Tie) Aleksander Radojevic 12th by Toronto and Frederic Weis 15th in 1999
One was drafted out of community college and played 12 games in his sorry excuse for an NBA career. The other became famous…for being Vince Carter’s bitch.

4. Celtics, Magic, Nets and Jazz all looking for their PG of the future in taking Joseph Forte, Jeryl Sasser, Brandon Armstrong, and Raul Lopez respectively with the 21st-24th picks in the 2001 Draft.
Unfortunately for these teams, the next three point guards off the board were Tony Parker, Jamaal Tinsley, and Gilbert Arenas. Whoops. And it’s not like PG was the only position left, Gerald Wallace and Sam Dalembert were taken with the 25th and 26th picks.

3. Michael Olowokandi 1st overall by the LA Clippers in 1998
Just a rule of thumb…never use the top pick in the draft on someone who went to Pacific.

2. Darko Milicic 2nd overall by Detroit in 2003
Yeah…Detroit won two championships in spite of this pick, but imagine if they had taken Dwayne Wade or Carmelo Anthony.

1. Mavericks, Warriors and Cavs taking Samaki Walker, Todd Fuller, and Vitaly Potepenko 9th, 11th, and 12th in 1996.
Why was this so bad? Not only did all three of these players turn out to be awful, but 4 of the next 5 picks to come off the board were Kobe Bryant, Peja Stojackavic, Steve Nash and Jermaine O’Neal. Ouch.

Picks I would term as "unlucky" rather than bad:
5. DaJuan Wagner 6th overall to Cleveland in 2002
Wagner once scored 100 points in a high school game and was one of the best players in the country as a freshman at Memphis. He averaged 13.4 ppg as a rookie with the Cleveland, but his career was shortened by injuries and health problems. After recently undergoing surgery to remove his colon, Wagner is attempting a comeback into the NBA. Had he remained healthy, he would have been a great compliment to LeBron James.

4. Shaun Livingston 4th overall to the Clippers in 2004
Livingston showed All-Star potential in his first few seasons. His career likely will be cut short by a gruesome knee injury suffered during the 06-07 regular season.

3. Kwame Brown 1st overall to Washington in 2001
OK, it was MJ’s first draft. And thought Brown turned out to be a disappointment, it’s not like there were other superstars he passed up for Kwame. Unless Jordan decided to draft Pau Gasol or Jason Richardson with the top pick, pretty much all of the top-rated players turned out to be busts. (Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler, Shane Battier, DaSanga Diop, Eddie Griffin).

2. Jonathan Bender 5th overall to Indiana in 1999
Like Livingston, Bender showed a great deal of promise in his first few years straight out of high school, but a problematic left knee forced him to retire early. Had Bender continued to develop, we could be talking about a perennial All-Star today.

1. Jay Williams 2nd overall to Chicago in 2002
Williams was the most dominant point guard in College Basketball over the last ten years. It’s not the Bulls’ fault that he decided to give up basketball to become the next Evel Knievel.

Ten Best Picks of the Last Ten Years
Honorable Mention:
Dwayne Wade 5th overall to Miami in 2003
Not that it was a good pick, because at this point, LeBron, Carmelo and Chris Bosh were already gone…but it was a pick that certainly changed the franchise and delivered an NBA title.

Carlos Boozer 35th overall to the Cavs in 2002
This certainly would have been on the list if Cleveland held on to Boozer, who is now one of the best power forwards in the game.

Rashard Lewis 32nd to Seattle and Cuttino Mobley 41st to Houston in 1998
Both ended up being standout NBA players for the past nine years…not something you can say about most second-round picks.

Monta Ellis 40th to the Golden State in 2005, Josh Smith 17th to Atlanta in 2004, and Kevin Martin 26th to Sacramento
All could end up on the list, but it’s a little too early in their careers to tell.

10. Josh Howard 29th overall to Dallas in 2003
Mark Cuban, normally not shy about taking foreign players, passed up projected first-rounders Maciej Lampe, Sofoklis Schortisiantis, Slavko Vranes, and Zaza Puchilla to draft this future All-Star.

9. Derek Fisher 24th overall to LA Lakers in 1996
Who knew that this pudgy guard out of Arkansas-Little Rock would play a key role in the Laker’s three-peat? Fisher will perhaps best be remembered for his desperation game winning shot with 0.4 seconds left in Game 5 of the 03-04 conference semifinals against the Spurs.

8. Gilbert Arenas 31st overall to Golden State in 2002
Arenas was one of the better second round steals in the last decade. Though he didn’t truly become a superstar until he played for Washington, Arenas helped lift the Warriors out of the Pacific Division cellar during his stint in the Bay Area.

7. Amare Stoudemire 9th overall to Phoenix in 2002
A year after Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, and DaSanga Diop all flopped as rookies, picking high school big men was not trendy in the 2002 Draft. Phoenix easily could have gone with a “safe” college player such as Jared Jeffries, Melvin Ely, or Juan Dixon, but they went for the home run with Stoudemire and they nailed it.

6. Deron Williams 3rd overall to Utah in 2005
Williams was somewhat of a late-bloomer, catapulting himself into the Top 5 behind a standout NCAA tournament. The Jazz took a lot of heat initially for passing on Rookie of the Year Chris Paul, but Williams had a fantastic second year in Utah and might be the better of the two when it is all said and done.

5. Michael Redd 43rd overall to Milwaukee in 2000
Not often do you get a franchise player in the middle of the second round. I’m not saying Milwaukee got lucky, because they obviously did their homework on Redd, but I don’t think anyone, even the Bucks, expected him to be this good.

4. Shawn Marion 9th overall to Phoenix in 1999
At the time, Marion was a relative unknown out of UNLV. The Suns picked him over some highly-regarded prospects such as Jason Terry, Corey Maggette, Ron Artest, Trajan Langdon, and William Avery. Marion turned out to be a pretty good pick.

3. Tayshaun Prince 23rd overall to Detroit in 2002
While other teams were reaching for upside players such as Qyntel Woods, Jiri Welsch, Boston Nachbar, and Marcus Haislip, the Pistons went the conventional route and took a proven college star who fit right into their system. Prince has made the Eastern Conference finals in each of his first five seasons and has won two championships.

2. Tony Parker 28th overall to San Antonio in 2001
Parker made an immediate impact, and has turned into one of the leagues best point guards over the last few seasons. Had the Spurs not taken him here…it would likely have been Jamaal Tinsley (taken one pick later) that seduced and date-raped Eva Longoria after meeting her in the San Antonio locker room.

1. Manu Ginobili 57th overall to San Antonio in 1999
Ginobili was the second-to-last pick in the ’99 Draft and turned out to be a major player on a two-time NBA champion Spurs squad that is currently in the midst of another title run.

Though drafting players has shown to be a great way to improve (or ruin) a franchise, perhaps the biggest impact on draft day has come from trades. Here are the ten trades that have made the biggest impact over the past years, obviously benefiting one team greatly and dooming the other for years.

Most Impactful Draft Day Trades of the Last Ten Years
10. 2004- Phoenix Suns trade the draft rights of Luol Deng to the Chicago Bulls for a future first round pick (which turned out to be #21 Nate Robinson of the 2005 Draft).
Phoenix took the risk that Chicago would get a high pick in 2005. They didn’t, so the Suns ended up trading Robinson to the Knicks with Quentin Richardson for Kurt Thomas. The Bulls were the big winners of this trade, getting a 20 point per game scorer in Deng essentially for Robinson.

9. 2005- Washington Wizards trade Jerry Stackhouse, Christian Laetner, and the draft rights of Devin Harris to the Dallas Mavericks for Antawn Jamison.
Dallas made out like bandits, essentially getting their point guard of the future and the league’s best sixth man in Stackhouse for Jamison, a talented player who didn’t fit in with the Mavs.

8. 2006- Houston Rockets trade the draft rights of Rudy Gay to the Memphis Grizzlies for Shane Battier.
This is a trade I will never understand. It is evident that Battier will be nothing more than a role player, but Gay has the chance to be special. I bet Houston, whose third scorer is Luther Head, regrets making this move a year later.

7. 2003- NY Knicks trade the draft rights to Leandro Barbosa to the Phoenix Suns for a future first round pick (which turns out to be #30 David Lee in 2005).
David Lee has been a solid rebounder for the Knicks, but his contribution does not compare to what Barbosa has done for the Suns.

6. 1998- Toronto Raptors trade the draft rights of Antawn Jamison to Golden State for the draft rights to Vince Carter.
Not that Jamison, the former National Player of the Year at North Carolina, is a bad pro, but he is not Vince Carter. Carter is almost solely responsible for jumpstarting the Toronto Raptor franchise and drew a ton of media attention for his gravity-defying dunks.

5. 2002- The NY Knicks trade Marcus Camby and the draft rights to Nene Hilario to the Denver Nuggets for Antonio McDyess and Frank Williams.
Camby ended up being the 2006-2007 Defensive Player of the Year and Nene has contributed a great deal to Denver despite tearing his ACL two seasons ago. As well all know, McDyess, and particularly Frank Williams, really helped turn around the misfortune of the Knicks.

4. 2002- Houston Rockets trade the draft rights of Richard Jefferson, Jason Collins, and Brandon Armstrong to the NJ Nets for the draft rights to Eddie Griffin.
At the time, the Nets didn’t look too smart trading away Griffin, the Seton Hall freshman phenom for a pervert with suspect driving skills. Five years later, it turns out Jefferson is the All-Star, while Griffin is the one crashing his SUV because he was watching porn.

3. 2001- LA Clippers trade draft rights of Tyson Chandler to the Chicago Bulls for Elton Brand
This honestly was just inexcusable on the part of Chicago. Brand was entering his third year and was one of the league’s best young big men. At best, Chandler would be as good as Brand, but there was a huge risk involved because the Bulls didn’t know exactly what they were getting with Chandler. They shortly found out, and regret making the trade to this day.

2. 1998- Milwaukee Bucks trade the draft rights of Dirk Nowitzki to the Dallas Mavericks for the draft rights to Robert Traylor.
It’s not all that bad…at least Traylor got to train for the National Hot Dog eating contest in the frank footer capital of America.

1. 1997-Charlotte Hornets trade the draft rights of Kobe Bryant to the LA Lakers for Vlade Divac.
Yeah....about that....

Friday, May 25, 2007

NBA Draft 2007- Mock #1

We all know that there are going to be two big winners in this years draft: Portland and Seattle. With the addition of Greg Oden, the Blazers will drastically improve immediatley- and barring any serious front office mistakes or injuries- will be in the position to contend for a title within the next five years. As we've seen in the past, dominant big men win championships, and a frontline of Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge is going to be about as dominant as a frontcourt can get. Seattle, however, is still is lacking that post presence and probably will just be a fun team to watch rather than a championship contender. It is almost a certainty that Rashard Lewis is on his way out to make room for Durant- and interestingly enough-Zach Randolph (who quietly averaged 24 and 10 last season) will most likely be shown the door in Portland. Rumors are already circulating that the two could be swapped for eachother in a trade that would benefit both squads.
Since the first two picks might have as well been made the night of the lottery, I'll start my first mock draft at #3, where Atlanta is in a precarious situation.

3. Atlanta
The Hawks have two options here: either they take Ohio State Mike Conley Jr. and fill their glaring need at PG, or they take a big man here and pick up local Georgia Tech PG Javaris Crittenton at #11. Though Conley got a lot of attention for his play in the tournament last year, Crittenton might actually be the more gifted of the two. He is 6’5’’, can score, has a natural feel for the game as a playmaker, and has an NBA ready body despite being 19 years old. Atlanta’s best bet is to take Florida F/C Al Horford, a physical player with a similar skill set to Elton Brand, with the 3rd pick and select Crittenton with the 11th choice. Essentially, the combination of Horford and Crittenton is far better than Conley and say Jeff Green or Spencer Hawes, two players likely to be available at #11.
Don’t look now, but the Hawks potential line-up of Crittenton, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Horford (with Shelden Williams coming off the bench) will be a force in the East for years to come.

4. Memphis
The Grizz aren’t exactly happy about missing out on Oden and Durant, but this draft is deep and they will be able to get an impact player at 4. Memphis has a nice nucleus with Rudy Gay, Mike Miller, Hakim Warrick, Pau Gasol, and Stromile Swift. There are a bunch of different directions they could go here. They need a point guard (unless they feel Kyle Lowry can run the team) and some muscle up front. Unfortunately, with Horford gone, Yi Jianlian is the most muscular big man available, so the best option is to go with Conley.

5. Boston
The Luck of the Irish? Not so much. The Celtics fell all the way to #5 after months of hoping to land Oden or Durant. So what does GM Danny Ainge do? He takes Yi Jianlian for two reasons : 1.) He can shoot and his versatility will complement Al Jefferson inside and 2.) He probably will suck and the Celtics might be bad enough to land OJ Mayo or Derrick Rose next year.

6. Milwaukee
The Bucks were riddled with injuries last year and are not very far from being a playoff team. They have a good backcourt with Mo Williams, Michael Redd, Earl Boykins and Charlie Bell; a center in Andrew Bogut, and a versatile forward in Charlie Villanueva. Again, there are a lot of options here and they can afford to take a risk. Milwaukee cannot ignore the upside of UNC PF Brandan Wright, although if Conley is available here, he might be the pick if the team chooses not to resign Mo Williams.

7. Minnesota
Kevin Garnett’s career is on the downside and it might be time for the T’Wolves to ship him off. They are extremely thin up front, so taking a big guy would be a top priority here. They will consider Washington C Spencer Hawes, but versatile Kansas F Julian Wright will be the team’s new KG in the coming decade. He should team well with second-year G Randy Foye.

8. Charlotte
Matt Carroll emerged as one of the leagues best shooters and Adam Morrison proved to be a solid role player in his first year. Though both Morrison and Carroll can shoot, neither can play a lick of defense, which is why the Bobcats will take Florida G/F Corey Brewer.

9. Chicago
The Bulls might not re-sign Andres Nocioni, so depth at small forward is an issue. The bigger issue is inside scoring, however, so they can afford to take high-risk, high-reward big man Spencer Hawes and have him come off the bench behind Ben Wallace in his first few years.

10. Sacramento
The Kings could use help anywhere except for shooting guard, where they have a young star in Kevin Martin. Florida PF Joakim Noah is still developing on offense but has more upside than people think. At the very least, Noah will bring energy and a winner’s mentality to a lifeless team.

11. Atlanta
After taking Horford at #3, the Hawks really have to go PG here. Jarvaris Crittenton, a dynamic 6’5’’ scorer and playmaker, might need a year or two to realize his potential, but this team is young and will be together for the better part of the next decade.

12. Philadelphia
After trading AI, the Sixers are also in the midst of a rebuilding project. They have two young wing players in Andre Iguodala and Rodney Carney and a veteran PG in Andre Miller, so they’ll opt for Florida State F Al Thornton to provide frontcourt help.

13. New Orleans
A gift by the name of Jeff Green falls into the Hornets’ lap. The versatile Georgetown forward will fill New Orleans’ only real glaring need and should play a major role for this future playoff team.

14. LA Clippers
With the career of Shaun Livingston in doubt and Sam Cassell at the ripe age of 47, the Clippers would be foolish to pass on Texas A+M PG Acie Law IV.

15. Detroit
The Pistons are the class of the Eastern Conference, but their frontcourt of Rasheed Wallace, Chris Webber and Antonio McDyess isn’t getting any younger. Duke PF Josh McRoberts will fly under the radar in this draft, but has the athleticism and size to be a nice player at the next level.

16. Washington
The Wizards are a big man away from being a contender in the East, but there aren’t any worth taking here. Instead, Washington will select Georgia Tech SG Thaddeus Young, a dynamic athlete and scorer to replace the struggling DeShawn Stevenson.

17. New Jersey
The Nets don’t have many holes, but for some reason they just aren’t very good. They might as well take a risk on Brazilian PF Tiago Splitter, a player who has entered and withdrawn from the draft for the past 5 years and honestly will probably never play in the NBA. But if he does, hey, it’s a good pick.

18. Golden State
The Warriors desperately need an inside scorer, and while Colorado St. PF Jason Smith is raw, he has the potential to give the Warriors some semblance of a low-block scorer.

19. LA Lakers
LA should go with the best player available- which is Vanderbilt G/F Derrick Byers.

20. Miami
The Heat have no young big men, but this team is not about to reach for one that won’t contribute right away. They have a good chance to reach the finals next year, so the pick is USC PG Gabe Pruitt to take over for the erratic Jason Williams.

21. Philadelphia
This is the second of Philly’s three first round picks, and there is a chance they will try to package two or possibly all three to get into the Top 5. If they stay here, they get an early Christmas present in the form of USC SG Nick Young. Young is a good all-around player with above average athleticism. Reminds scouts of Josh Howard.

22. Charlotte
The Bobcats already addressed the perimeter by drafting Corey Brewer, now they will go for help on the interior. Pittsburgh C Aaron Gray may not be the best athlete, but he is 7’1’’ 280 and has a soft touch from 15 and in.

23. New York
Remember in NBA Live when you would forfeit all your picks because you couldn’t afford to pay a player to sit on the bench because you were so far over the cap? That’s the situation the Knicks are in right now. So they’ll draft C Marc Gasol (brother of Pau) and pray he never leaves Spain.

24. Phoenix
The Suns were the biggest loser of the lottery. Had Atlanta’s pick landed outside of the Top 3, Phoenix would have gotten it as compensation for the Joe Johnson trade and possibly had the chance to draft Al Horford or Brandan Wright. Head Coach Mike D’Antoni will reluctantly pass on his favorite player of all-time, Italian SG Marco Bellini, and take Boston College shot-blocker extraordinaire Sean Williams.

25. Utah
Conventional wisdom would suggest the Jazz would take a white shooting guard, but that is the last thing they need. Providence PF Herbert Hill would give them some length and athleticism in the frontcourt.

26. Houston
Biggest needs are PF and PG. Luther Head is more of an undersized SG, and Rafer Alston just isn’t starting material. Florida PG Taurean Green gets the least recognition, but he is a heady floor leader with no real weaknesses. This pick could be a steal.

27. Detroit
The Pistons already bolstered depth inside by drafting McRoberts, now they have to address the backcourt. Eastern Washington G Rodney Stuckey is an electric scorer and will get spot time at both guard positions while serving as Chauncey Billlups’ understudy.

28. San Antonio
San Antonio is aging at all positions, but more than anything could use some youth at SF to supplant Bruce Bowen. North Carolina SF Reyshawn Terry is the type of all-around talent and defender that the Spurs look for.

29. Phoenix
D’Antoni can’t pass up the prospects of drafting Marco Bellini twice. “Marco can shoot, defend, and fill a role for us,” D’Antoni said after flying to Italy to visit his parents and watch Bellini work out. “He’s not all that bad to look at either,” the coach added.

30. Philadelphia
There are a lot of first-round swingmen available, but the Sixers don’t need another wing player. Odds are some team will trade into this spot and draft either Dequan Cook, Aaron Afflalo, Morris Almond, Alando Tucker, or Brandon Rush. If not, Philly will go big and draft Texas A+M F Joseph Jones. Aside from that group, DePaul’s Wilson Chandler, LSU's Glen Davis, Cal's DeVon Hardin, Syracuse’s Demetrius Nichols, and Nevada’s Nick Fazekas will be impact players at the top of the second round.