Breaking Down the Early Entrants

Who Made the Right Choice

Mike Conley Jr.
In a draft heavy with forwards and very low on guards, Conley finds himself as the #1 PG after a solid freshman year that was capped off by a terrific NCAA tournament. Conley’s stock is as high as it ever will be right now, and with Atlanta, Memphis, Minnesota, and Milwaukee all in the market for a new lead guard, Conley could go as high as #3 and probably no lower than #7. Had he returned to school, his stock for next year would fall for two reasons. First of all, he wouldn’t look as good without his counterpart Greg Oden. Secondly, next year’s class is guard-heavy and prep phenoms Derrick Rose and OJ Mayo almost certainly would be drafted ahead of Conley.

Thaddeus Young
Usually the most abundant position in a draft is swingman. This year, however, power forwards dominate the top of the board, making the talented Young one of the top SG/SF’s in the draft. Young isn’t a polished prospect, but he has athleticism and a jumpshot that reminds scouts of Tracy McGrady. Right now, he is a mid-first round pick but could jolt himself into the Top 10 with impressive workouts.

Yi Jianlian
Jianlian’s entry was pure genius. The 2007 Draft is chock-full of college stars and American-born players. Somewhere in the top ten, a team will want to deviate from the norm and draft the international mystery instead of the proven college player, and in the process screw themselves over for the foreseeable future. That team, in all likelihood, will be the Boston Celtics.

Spencer Hawes
Aside from Oden, this is a relatively weak draft class for centers and Hawes, the default #2 center after Roy Hibbert withdrew, will almost certainly go in the lottery as a result. I’m normally not one to condone freshmen entering the draft unless they are 1st team All-American, but Hawes is an exception. While most young players need the extra time in college to develop their skills, Hawes’ skills are at an NBA level. He needs to develop his body and athleticism, something that is easier to do in the NBA than in college, due to the far superior facilities and strength coaches available in the NBA. Hawes probably won’t play very much his first year, but with hard work in the weight room he’ll have a chance to be a very good center at the next level.

Hasheem Thabeet
Thabeet faced a difficult decision because his family is still in Tanzania and he could have used a hefty NBA contract to move them to America. He ultimately made the right choice, however, because despite standing 7’3’’, Thabeet would have disappointed in workouts and fell out of the lottery because has virtually no offensive skills. He does, however, possess good athleticism, shot-blocking skills, and form on his free throws/jumper (if he ever actually took one). With one more year at UConn, Thabeet can develop some more body strength and post-up skills and really improve his draft stock. We’ve all seen what Jim Calhoun can do with raw big men (Okafor, Hilton Armstrong, Josh Boone).

Darrell Arthur
Arthur was expected to declare for the draft after a solid freshman year at Kansas. But, as a PF, Arthur would have come off the board behind Al Horford, Brandan Wright, Yi Jianlian, his teammate Julian Wright, and possibly Joakim Noah. Next year, Arthur looks like the second PF prospect behind Kansas State freshman Michael Beasley.

Roy Hibbert
Hibbert easily would have been a Top 10 pick this year had he left, but he decided to return for his senior season (possibly with Jeff Green), and make another Final Four run. At 7’2’’ 278 lb center with three point range, Hibbert’s stock should only improve for 2008. This is the kind of decision that more players should make, as it benefits both the college and pro game.

Who Made the Same Mistake Shawn Kemp Did (They forgot to pull out…..of the draft)

Daequan Cook
With Oden, Conley, Ron Lewis and Ivan Harris all on their way out of Columbus, Cook would have had a chance to showcase the skills that he was unable to last year as Ohio State’s fifth option. He is helping his stock in Pre-Draft camp with some high scoring outputs, but with a breakout sophomore season, Cook would be in the position to be a lottery pick in 2008. As it stands right now, he is a fringe first-rounder.

Wilson Chandler
Chandler is a very gifted player with size (6’7’’ 220), athleticism, and shooting touch. He turned some heads last year playing with an average DePaul squad, but declared after his sophomore season despite having room to improve. Chandler is rated in the Top 30 on my board, but odds are he won’t be selected until the middle of the second round. If Chandler stayed all four years and starred for an average college team (similar to the career path Al Thornton took), he would be looking at a late lottery to mid first round selection in the 2009 Draft.

Marcus Williams
Williams can score at the college level but until he develops a consistent jumpshot, cuts down on the wild shots, and adds some weight to his skinny frame, I can’t see him going in the first round. Another year or two of seasoning under Lute Olsen would have really helped.

Glen Davis
Declaring for the draft was not the mistake Davis made. The mistake he made was declaring for the NBA Draft instead of the NFL Draft.

Josh McRoberts
McRoberts needs more time to refine his awkward game. He can shoot from midrange, is a good ballhandler and passer, and has good length that enables him to score inside. However, he lacks strength, mobility, and back to the basket moves, so his offensive skills pretty much will go to waste until he gets stronger. There’s no better place to improve his game then the national spotlight that Duke constantly plays in. If McRoberts waited another year or two, he could go in the Top 10 and actually be ready to contribute as an NBA Rookie.

Dominic James
I think James is getting bored with the college game. There is no other reasonable explanation to why James would enter his name when he knows there is virtually no chance he’ll go in the first round. James should return to Marquette and hold off on the NBA until he improves his jumpshot.

Tack Minor, Spencer Tallekson, Isaac Wells, Drew Gibson, Aaron Bruce, Jaycee Carroll and the other 100 players who declared with no chance of getting selected.
You guys know you declared for the NBA Draft, not the NBDL or Italian League draft, right? Alright, just checking.